Metode de opțiuni reale

Types of real options[ edit ] Simple Examples Investment This simple example shows the relevance of the real option to delay investment and wait for further information, and is adapted from "Investment Example".

Consider a firm that has the option to invest in a new factory.

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It can invest metode de opțiuni reale year or next year. The question is: when should the firm invest? If the firm invests this year, it has an income stream earlier.

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But, if it invests next year, the firm obtains further information about the state of the economy, which can prevent it from investing with losses. The firm knows its discounted cash flows if it invests this year: 5M.

Real options valuation

If it invests next year, the discounted cash flows are 6M with a The investment cost is 4M. If the firm invests next year, the present value of metode de opțiuni reale investment cost is 3. Following the net present value rule for investment, the firm should invest this year because the discounted cash flows 5M are greater than the investment costs 4M by 1M. Yet, if the firm waits for metode de opțiuni reale year, it only invests if discounted cash flows do not decrease. If discounted cash flows decrease to 3M, then investment is no longer profitable.

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If, they grow to 6M, then the firm invests. This implies that the firm invests next year with a Thus the value to invest next year is 1. Given that the value to invest next year exceeds the value to invest this year, the firm should wait for further information to prevent losses.

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This simple example shows how the net present value may lead the firm to take unnecessary risk, which could be prevented by real options valuation. Staged Investment Staged investments are quite often in the pharmaceutical, mineral, and oil industries.

Această ipoteză ne-a permis să utilizăm o singură rată de rentabilitate cerută de investitori ȋn procesul de evaluare şi selectare a proiectelor pentru ca acestea să fie introduse ȋn bugetul de investiţii al firmei.

In this example, it is studied a staged investment abroad in which a firm decides whether to open one or two stores in a foreign country. This is adapted from "Staged Investment Example".

The firm does not know how well its stores are accepted in a foreign country.

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If their stores have high demand, the discounted cash flows per store câștigurile la domiciliu 10M. If their stores have low demand, the discounted cash flows per store is 5M.

It is also known that if the store's demand is independent of the store: if one store has high demand, the other also has high demand. The investment cost per store is 8M.

Should the firm invest in one store, two stores, or not invest? The net present value suggests the firm should not invest: the net present value is But is metode de opțiuni reale the best alternative?

F h şi sunt valori ale distribuţiei normale standard, ele reprezentând probabilităţi ce variază între 0 şi 1. În acest caz   Ct St - X deoarece e-rt ® 1 atunci când t ® 0 iar preţul opţiuni este egal aproape în întregime cu valoarea sa intrinsecă. În acest caz preţul activului suport la scadenţă este cunoscut cu certitudine, iar opţiunea valorează numai preţul acţiunii mai puţin prima plătită. Presupunerea că h ® ¥ este puţin nerealistă, deoarece în realitate h ia valori mai mari decât 3, iar valoarea funcţiei F h va fi foarte apropiată de 1. Aceasta arată că, dacă preţul acţiunii este mare în metode de opțiuni reale cu preţul de exerciţiu al opţiunii, dacă opţiunea se apropie de scadenţă sau dacă dispersia activului suport tinde către zero atunci valoarea unei opţiuni va fi Ct St - X.

Following real options valuation, it is not: the firm has the real option to open one store this year, wait a year to know its demand, and invest in the new store next year if demand is high. The value to open one store this year is 7. Thus the value of the real option to invest in one store, wait a year, and invest next year is 0. Given this, the firm should opt by opening one store. This simple example shows that a negative net present value does not imply that the firm should not invest.

The flexibility available to management — i. Real options are also commonly applied to stock valuation - see Business valuation § Option pricing approaches - as well as to various other "Applications" referenced below.

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Options relating to project size[ edit ] Where the project's scope is uncertain, flexibility as to the size of the relevant facilities is valuable, and constitutes optionality.

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